Wednesday, June 11, 2014

World Cup Predictions

With only one sleep left until the 2014 FIFA World Cup kicks off in Sao Paolo, I thought it a wise time to make my final predictions for the tournament.

I'll start with my group stage predictions and who will move on to the knockout rounds:

Group A
1) Brazil
2) Croatia
3) Mexico
4) Cameroon

Group B
1) Netherlands
2) Spain 
3) Chile
4) Australia

Group C
1) Colombia
2) Japan
3) Ivory Coast
4) Greece

Group D
1) Italy
2) Uruguay
3) England
4) Costa Rica

Group E
1) France
2) Switzerland
3) Ecuador
4) Honduras

Group F
1) Argentina
2) Bosnia-Herzegovina
3) Nigeria
4) Iran

Group G
1) Germany
2) Portugal
3) USA
4) Ghana

Group H
1) Belgium
2) Russia
3) South Korea
4) Algeria

Moving on to the knockout rounds:

Brazil vs Spain
Netherlands vs Croatia
Colombia vs Uruguay
Italy vs Japan
France vs Bosnia
Argentina vs Switzerland
Germany vs Russia
Belgium vs Portugal

Quarterfinals:

Brazil vs Uruguay
Netherlands vs Italy
France vs Germany
Argentina vs Belgium

Semifinals:
Brazil vs France
Netherlands vs Belgium

Final:
Brazil vs Netherlands by a score of 3-1

Golden Boot: Robin van Persie
Golden Ball: Thiago Silva


Thursday, February 20, 2014

Is there a "best" transfer strategy?

All over Europe, clubs battle it out to attract the best talent and win trophies.  With so much focus on winning, it raises the question: Is there a "best" transfer strategy to enable success?  Here I'll examine a few of Europe's most common, and, sometimes controversial, transfer strategies.



The Faith in Youth


Clubs with such a tradition of youth development that, to do anything but, would be an insult to the history of the club.  These clubs are unbelievably effective at using the academy and youth scouting systems they have created, often with a focus on homegrown talent.


Manchester United


Strange though it may seem, the club's focus on youth was cast into the light by one of sport's most disastrous events.  It was in response to the Munich air disaster that Sir Matt Busby turned to the club's youth to carry the torch forward.  It took just ten years for the club's new development strategy to pay dividends as United won the European Cup Final in 1968 with a squad made up almost entirely of former Manchester United academy graduates.  By the end of his tenure, an astonishing 61% of the players that featured under Sir Matt were youth products.  This storied emphasis on youth became an integral part of United's continued success in England and in Europe.


Ajax


Famed for its 4-3-3 formation and offensive-minded and attractive football, the Ajax Youth Academy has pushed out dozens of accomplished European footballers.  In fact, 9 of the 11 starters of the 1995 Champions League-winning Ajax squad graduated from the academy.  Committed to a philosophy that governs training, behavior, and house rules, this academy has become a model of success for many European clubs.  These days, it seems the only problem Ajax has with its youth academy is keeping hold of its graduates; many players choose to move elsewhere in Europe in search of more competitive leagues - though it will always be a point of pride for the club that their academy is so consistently successful.

Barcelona

The idea for La Masia, FC Barcelona's fabled youth academy, was actually proposed by former Ajax academy graduate and Barcelona player Johan Cruyff.  Another lasting contribution from Cruyff was to embed the tiki-taka style of play into the club.  Becoming the first ever youth academy to develop all three Ballon d'Or finalists in the same year (Messi, Iniesta, Xavi in 2010), this academy is arguably today's most famous example of a youth football factory.  



The Style-fitters


Some clubs, no matter how much time passes or how bad things get, will never change their style of play.  It is within the confines of these footballing philosophies that new players are acquired.  Simply put, if a player doesn't fit the club's style, they aren't signed.


Arsenal


Arsenal are great believers in playing fast, attacking football.  They are known for their lightning-quick wingers and their speed on the counter-attack.  They have strong defenders and prolific strikers.  With Mesut Ozil being a possible outlier, Arsenal's purchases over the last few years have been relatively straightforward and in-line with their play.  Wingers like Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain, defenders like Mertesacker and Vermaelen, and strikers like Giroud and Podolski have all settled reasonably - most likely due to the fact that they have not had to change their own personal brand of football after joining the club.  Arsenal know the type of players they need any they go after them, they can't be bothered with anything else.

Bayern Munich

Similar to Arsenal in their focus on attacking play, Bayern Munich has been indomitable in Europe as of late.  Again relying on wingers and consistent marksmen, Bayern's recent transfers have been relatively risk-free.  They move for talented, established players, often prying them from some of their fiercest rivals in Germany.  Adding to the already excellent core of veteran players like Schweinsteiger and Lahm; what you are left with is an iron backbone of a team mixed with the new blood, ready to take on any challenge with a prolific attacking style of play.



The Spenders


Some clubs are very calculated and forward-thinking in their approach to transfers.  Others are a bit more direct and willing to drop serious money to improve their squads.  These clubs are in the latter category.


Real Madrid


It began at the turn of the millennium with the appointment of Florentino Perez as club president.  Perez vowed to assemble a team of the world's best footballers that could dominate Spain and Europe for years to come.  Figo, Zidane, Ronaldo, Beckham, Robert Carlos, Raul, Cannavaro - all were brought in in quick succession and at an expense of over $200 Million.  The plan worked initially, with Madrid winning the 2002 Champions League campaign.  However, as players either aged or left the club, it was clear more investment would be needed.  A second group of Galacticos were brought in starting with Kaka and Cristiano Ronaldo, the latter costing a then world record $130 Million.  While Madrid is consistently successful in their domestic league, it is likely their quest for La Decima, the club's 10th European honor that spurs a continued large-scale investment in players.  Recently, Madrid has been a bit more focused on the future; though still spending a lot, they are bringing in younger players like Isco and Illarramendi who should be around the club for many years to come.


Manchester City


Bankrolled by Sheikh Mansour, a member of Abu Dhabi's royal family, Manchester City has spent over $500 million in recent years overhauling their squad.  It was just 12 years ago that City were in the second tier of English Football, but, with the right investments, they have turned the club around - winning the Premier League in 2012 and making it to the knockout stages of the Champions League for the first time as a club this year.  Some might describe many of the club's recent purchases as "panic buys" - signing a player for a hefty sum to avoid bidding wars and prolonged negotiations.  In addition to sewing up their transfer business early and often, many of the transfers City has made recently have been for established, but still younger players.  The key piece missing here is that, unlike Real Madrid, City lack a style of play.  They've bought outstanding players, but struggle to build a consistent starting 11.  With so many great players at each position, it becomes an impossible task to please each squad member, leading to rifts between players and the manager.  While short-term success is evident, it's unclear how City will fare in the long run.



The Back-up Planners


Forced to jump into the transfer market to replace a departing player, these clubs are experts at scouting and planning for squad changes.  


Olympique Lyon


Lyon found themselves in a tough spot in the summer of 2009; their best goalscorer, Karim Benzema, was departing for Real Madrid and left a significant gap in the striking department.  However, due to the spectacular scouting system they had in place, Lyon quickly identified a replacement for Benzema in the form of Lisandro Lopez.  Signing from Porto just days after the Benzema transfer, Lopez integrating into the Lyon squad seamlessly and actually became a more prolific striker than the man he replaced.  This was all made possibly by Lyon's scouts and planning.  Given the instruction to identify replacement players that fit the Lyon mold elsewhere in the market in case any of the current squad were to leave or become injured, the club could react quickly and effectively to fill the gap with a signing.  It is the balance of proactive scouting and quick, reactive transfers that have made Lyon so successful over the last few decades.

FC Porto

Great at finding hidden gems from South and Latin America, Porto have been a mainstay in the Champions League and have challenged or won their domestic league consistently for the last several years.  Their expansive scouting network has brought many talented players to Europe.  The struggle is that, once in Portugal and playing for Porto, the players often develop to a point where they seem a larger challenge and leave the club.  It's all good though as Porto are set up in such a way that, if a player leaves, there is usually at least one other player elsewhere in Europe or the Americas to sign as a replacement.  One recent example is the recent departure of Joao Moutinho to Monaco.  Left with only Steven Defour as a recognized CM, Porto went off to Mexico and brought in Hector Herrera to fill the box-to-box void left by the Portuguese.



The Outliers

These clubs opt for more unorthodox and less common transfer strategies.  While they can certainly be successful, these strategies wouldn't work for everyone!


Athletic Bilbao

One of the most controversial club strategies of today, Athletic Bilbao employes a Basque cantera policy.  This policy essentially restricts the Bilbao squad to being made up of native or footballistically trained players from the greater Basque region in Spain and France.  While the strategy has garnered admiration from some for being so loyal to its roots, it definitely has its critics too.  The results sort of speak for themself, however, as Bilbao has won La Liga 8 times, the Copa Del Rey 23 times, and has contributed the second greatest number of players to the Spanish National Team players (after Real Madrid).


Zenit St. Petersburg


This club has proved how just a few key signings can turn a mid-table team into a trophy-winning one.  With the recent (and expensive) signings of Danny, Hulk, and Axel Witsel, Zenit have won 3 of its last 6 domestic campaigns.  With these key attacking investments, Zenit has ensured short-term success for their club.  This strategy is flawed, however, as in the long-term, more investments will have to be made in key players every few years to remain a contender. 


Galatasaray

Most would agree that the Turkish Super Lig isn't the most competitive in the world.  Often contenders in a two or three-horse race for the title, Galatasaray has, over the last few years, brought in many experienced players, often on the cheap, from Europe to strengthen the squad.  The recent arrivals of Didier Drogba, Felipe Melo, Emmanuel Eboue, and Fernando Muslera have provided a great amount of wisdom and experience to the club - helping them on their journey to winning their last two domestic campaigns.  Relying on veterans in a squad can be a risky thing - they tend to be injured or fatigued more often - but it has worked well for this side.



Obviously an ideal transfer and squad development strategy would include components of each of the above, but with limited resources and lots of pressure from governing football associations, it's not always possible.

So - what do you think?  Do you think any of these are the "best" strategy to guarantee sustained success for a football club?  Comment below to voice your opinion!